The good media story
Tuesday, 22 July, 2008Ok, let’s be honest. Would you rather read a good story or a bad story? Do you like happy endings (non-Hollywood style), or the dramatic melancholy of an unresolved dissonance?
If you think about the new media meta-narrative, it strikes me that we’ve become fixated on the drama that’s affecting incumbent media. You’re familiar with the story: mainstream newspapers and TV are “losing” while new media like consumer-generated content and social networking is “winning.”
Just about every media debate I can think of – blogging vs. journalism, the future of advertising, digital rights management, mobile content – fits into this paradigm. Every conference, panel discussion or private meeting I’ve enjoyed over the past two years has roughly echoed this story. And it’s a fascinating story, even if it sometimes seems overplayed. It’s fascinating because it echoes other big underdog stories that capture our attention: David vs. Goliath, Vietnam vs. the United States, Maxine McKew vs. John Howard.
I realise I’m speaking in pretty general terms, but today I realised what’s been bugging me about this story. As an industry we’ve spent so much time focused on who is losing that we’ve lost sight of where the opportunities lie.
Let me give you some examples. At Ross Dawson’s Future of Media Summit 2008, it was interesting to see a few eyebrows raised when he predicted the total worldwide media industry would be worth US$5.7 trillion by 2024 (pdf here). You could almost hear people thinking: “Huh? That’s not part of the “big media is dead” story I’ve been following!” How, how did he get that figure? I don’t know. But it’s a good story.
If the total media pie is actually getting bigger, then that’s worth further investigation. Of course, it’s not a new idea. Figures I compiled late last year show that while growth in advertising spend is
falling in some segments like Outdoor and Free-to-Air TV, the total pie keeps growing (albeit slowly in segments like newspapers - see chart).
Another interesting data point can be seen in these e-marketer stats which show total TV consumption in the United States has continued to rise despite the boom in online video. One of the theories here is that as we become more sophisticated media consumers, media continues to occupy even more of our everyday lives.
We don’t stop watching TV just because we’ve started micro-blogging on Twitter, for example. Some of us, including yours truly, watch TV AND write Twitter posts. You can laugh if you like - my family does - but it’s fascinating to realise that instant, real-time conversations are becoming a normal part of the way we consume live events, TV and video streams. The likes of ustream.tv or mobile phone streams on Qik are just the tip of the iceberg.
There’s an old cliche that a rising tide floats all boats. It’s actually not a perfect analogy because it hides from view the very real, game-changing impact of consumer-driven changes to the media business. But what the statistics tell us is that there are more media fortunes to be won than lost in the years to come. And that’s a good story, one that demands more attention regardless of whether you are in the “old” or “new” media business.
Posted by mhjones






