Will Australia escape recession fallout?
January 22nd, 2008 by mhjones
According to my guests on the first episode of The Scoop for 2008, the short answer is yes - at least from the perspective of the local IT industry. That’s a very big call given that the ASX keeps heading south and the media use terms like “freefall“.
It was something of a challenge finding the CEO of an Australian IT company at work in January (7 CEOs I contacted were away…), but we overcame. Joining me on the show with their predictions for the year ahead is Gary Cohen, chief executive, IBA Health, Tom Stianos, chief executive, SMS Management & Technology and Tim Reed, managing director, MYOB Australia. Enjoy!
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January 22nd, 2008 at 8:05 pm
If a recession comes, Australia and the Australian IT industry won’t escape. We’re a small market on our own and heavily dependent on demand for our goods and produce abroad. Any downturn or slowing in the economy will affect IT since IT is not just an industry in its own right but also is a major service underpinning every other industry.
If America goes into recession but Europe and Asia manage to stay out of it and just experience slowing, then Australia might also be able to get away with slowing. If Europe and Asia go into recession then no way.
Last time around, with the dotcom crash, I remember the stock market fell in March or April of 2000 and for at least six months businesses and analysts were putting a positive spin on it, saying it needed to happen and now we could sort the wheat from the chaff. Well maybe it needed to happen but plenty of good non-dotcommish businesses got hammered and the downturn was quite long and painful. I was writing job cuts and bankruptcy stories for at least two years afterwards.
A more generalised downturn is going to hurt more people than just IT and it will affect the media quite badly because a downturn means advertising cutbacks. Not great news for me, as a freelance journalist.